Interest rates in December are holding in the mid‑6% range with small day‑to‑day bumps, while inventory remains historically tight but measurably better than last year, creating room for strategic purchases and refis. Sellers are more negotiable on price and terms than they were in the last couple of peak spring markets, especially on homes that have been sitting a bit longer.
Rates: Steady, with short‑term volatility
Average 30‑year conforming rates are running around the mid‑6s (roughly 6.2–6.3%) as of mid‑December, only a few basis points different from a week ago, which fits the “holding steady with short‑term volatility” theme. November’s average near 6.24% was the lowest in over a year, and current levels are still well below the 7%+ peaks seen earlier in 2025.
Intraday and day‑to‑day moves of 0.03–0.10% have been common as markets react to Fed commentary, inflation prints, and bond auctions, which is ideal for “rate watching” strategies on locks and float‑downs. This backdrop supports targeted refis for borrowers coming off 7–8% loans, cash‑outs for debt consolidation, and move‑up buys where payment shock can be managed with buydowns and concessions.
Strategic refinance angles
Refis make the most sense for owners who closed in late‑2023 through mid‑2025 at or above the high‑6s to 7s, since current mid‑6s rates can offer meaningful savings or cash‑flow restructuring even without “pandemic‑era” lows. Borrowers with consumer debt at double‑digit rates may benefit from cash‑out refis that consolidate balances into a single mid‑6% mortgage, especially if they plan to stay put long enough to recoup closing costs.
Given the small but frequent rate swings, using rate alerts and having applications pre‑underwritten allows borrowers to lock quickly on good days, and to negotiate for lender or seller‑funded buydowns to bring effective rates into the low‑6s or high‑5s in year one. Adjustable‑rate and shorter‑term products (15‑year, ARMs) continue to price lower than standard 30‑year money, which can work for higher‑income borrowers with shorter time horizons or aggressive payoff goals.
Inventory: tight, but improving
National existing‑home inventory is still below what would be considered a balanced market, with supply around 3.3 months versus the 4.5–6 months that would signal neutral conditions, so “still tight” is accurate. Even so, total units are up double‑digits versus a year ago, with current counts around 1.52 million versus roughly 1.37 million last year, confirming the “but improving” part of the story.
Seasonally, December normally sees fewer new listings, yet this year homes are staying on market a bit longer and delistings are elevated, a sign that pricing is adjusting and stale listings are being repositioned. Builders are also signaling modest gains in starts and sales into 2026, which should add to options for buyers who are open to new construction instead of competing heavily for select resale listings.
Why sellers are more motivated
Several factors are pushing sellers to be more flexible: days on market have lengthened compared with the frenzy years, and sellers are increasingly cutting prices or offering concessions to meet buyers where they are on payment comfort. Many owners who delayed listing during higher‑rate months of 2025 are now coming to market before 2026, and they understand buyers expect negotiation on price, repairs, and closing costs.
This is translating into more frequent seller credits for rate buydowns, closing cost assistance, and flexible possession timelines, particularly on homes that have been listed longer or are slightly mis‑priced for their area. For serious buyers, December offers a quieter competition window and more leverage on terms, even if choices are still narrower than in a fully balanced market.
Where the opportunities are
For buyers, the sweet spot is well‑priced homes that have been on market longer than the local median, where motivated sellers are open to concessions that can effectively lower the buyer’s rate and cash needed to close. Combining today’s mid‑6s rate environment with a 2–3 point temporary buydown paid by the seller or builder can create payments that feel closer to the high‑5s in the early years, with the option to refi later if rates move lower.
For existing owners, the best strategic refi plays are: dropping from 7–8% into the mid‑6s, restructuring high‑interest consumer debt, or executing “swap” strategies where a purchase and a refi are coordinated as rates and inventory gradually normalize. In all cases, being fully pre‑approved, rate‑alerted, and ready to negotiate strong terms with motivated sellers is the key to capitalizing on December’s mix of steady rates, modest volatility, and gradually improving inventory.